基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测

谢力, 魏汝祥, 孙胜祥, 尚凡葵

谢力, 魏汝祥, 孙胜祥, 尚凡葵. 基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2014, 9(6): 115-119. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2014.06.020
引用本文: 谢力, 魏汝祥, 孙胜祥, 尚凡葵. 基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2014, 9(6): 115-119. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2014.06.020
XIE Li, WEI Ruxiang, SUN Shengxiang, SHANG Fankui. Maintenance Fees Forecast for Warship Equipment Based on Mahalanobis Distance[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2014, 9(6): 115-119. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2014.06.020
Citation: XIE Li, WEI Ruxiang, SUN Shengxiang, SHANG Fankui. Maintenance Fees Forecast for Warship Equipment Based on Mahalanobis Distance[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2014, 9(6): 115-119. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2014.06.020

基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测

基金项目: 国家社会科学基金军事学项目资助(13GJ003-258)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    谢力(通信作者),男,1980年生,博士,讲师。研究方向:装备经济管理。 魏汝祥,男,1962年生,博士,教授。研究方向:装备经济管理。E?mail: ruxiangwei@163.com

  • 中图分类号: U672.7 

Maintenance Fees Forecast for Warship Equipment Based on Mahalanobis Distance

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    Author Bio:

    XIE Li

    Corresponding author:

    XIE Li: 谢力

知识共享许可协议
基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测谢力,采用知识共享署名4.0国际许可协议进行许可。
  • 摘要: 为更加准确地确定舰船装备全寿命费用,提高装备经费的使用效益,针对我国舰船装备修理价格影响因素多、不确定性大的特点,提出采用组合预测方法对其进行预测建模;针对基于欧氏距离的组合预测方法不能处理用于组合的单项预测模型之间的相关性问题,提出采用马氏距离作为建模基础,建立基于马氏距离的舰船装备修理价格组合预测模型。应用结果显示,基于马氏距离的组合预测要比基于欧氏距离的组合预测以及各单项预测具有更好的稳定性,预测风险更小。
    Abstract: The determination of the maintenance fees for warship equipment involves many factors and huge uncertainty. To confirm the life cycle cost of warship equipment more exactly, the forecast combination method is applied in this paper to establish the forecast model for warships, which ensures efficient use of equipment funding. As there is a linear correlation among different individual models, the forecast combination model based on Euclidean distance may be poor in performance. Therefore, Mahalanobis distance is proposed as a substitution. Results show that the proposed method, compared with the forecast combination based on Euclidean distance and individual forecast models, is less risky and more reliable.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-05-22
  • 修回日期:  2014-12-04
  • 刊出日期:  2014-12-04

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