船舶下水安全性评估的模糊故障树方法

Fuzzy Fault-Tree Approach to the Safety Assessment of Ships Launching

  • 摘要: 建立了基于模糊故障树分析的安全性评估模型,提出船舶下水从最小割集、顶事件发生的概率模糊数及基本事件的模糊重要度三个方面进行分析的安全性评估方法。介绍模糊故障树基本原理,并以某4300PCTC船纵向滑道下水过程中某一顶事件的模糊故障树分析为例,作概要阐述。

     

    Abstract: A safety assessment model is established based on the analysis of fuzzy fault-tree,and an safety assessment method for ship launching in the following aspects:minimum cut sets analysis, evaluation of failure probability of the top event and fuzzy importance analysis of the basic events. In present paper, the basic principle of fuzzy fault-tree is introduced, and an example of fuzzy fault-tree analysis of one top event in a 4300 PCTC ship launching on longitudinal slide way is given and illuminated.

     

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