Abstract:
To meet the transformational requirements of distributed maritime operations, the United States is accelerating the development of new combat forces centered on unmanned systems. However, the development pathways of maritime unmanned equipment differ significantly across countries and regions. These differences are reflected not only in platform selection and technical configuration, but also in operational concepts, capability-generation models, and the ways in which unmanned systems are integrated into maritime forces. Focusing primarily on the United States, and incorporating the practical experience of Ukraine, Israel, Iran, and other countries or regions, this paper conducts a comparative analysis of the evolution of maritime unmanned equipment and the divergence of global development pathways. First, based on the development history, classification characteristics, and typical operational scenarios of U.S. unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), this paper constructs a three-dimensional autonomy-level assessment framework from the perspective of mission characteristics. The framework includes environmental complexity, mission complexity, and the degree of human-machine interaction. Environmental complexity reflects the external conditions in which unmanned systems operate; mission complexity characterizes the difficulty and diversity of operational tasks; and the degree of human-machine interaction describes the extent to which human operators participate in supervision, decision-making, and control. Through this framework, the paper reveals the intrinsic coupling relationship among the size, mission, and autonomy level of unmanned maritime equipment. That is, platform size is closely associated with mission scope, operational employment, and the autonomy required for effective task execution. On this basis, the paper further analyzes the core differences between manned and unmanned maritime equipment from five dimensions: expendability, command and control, agility, human-machine teaming, and development philosophy. The framework is then applied to examine the development trends of unmanned maritime equipment in different countries. The analysis identifies two dominant development pathways: a high-end, system-oriented pathway and a low-cost, large-scale pathway. The former emphasizes advanced capability, system integration, and high-level operational coordination, whereas the latter focuses on affordability, quantity, and scalable employment. Based on these findings, the paper proposes a composite development model that integrates the advantages of both pathways and reflects the possible convergence of future development directions. Finally, in light of China’s strategic positioning and maritime security requirements, this paper discusses implications for pathway selection, intelligent communications, autonomous planning, and coordinated offensive and defensive operations. Future development trends are also examined from the perspective of system construction and operational capability generation. The findings provide a theoretical reference for the systematic construction of China’s maritime unmanned equipment and for the generation of operational capability.