基于LSTM神经网络的不规则波中参数横摇预报

Forecasting of parametric rolling in irregular waves with LSTM neural networks algorithm

  • 摘要: 【目的】参数横摇对于船舶货物和人员安全都是一个极大的威胁。目前国际海事组织(IMO)已制定了第二代完整稳性衡准,并给出了实船参数横摇操纵指南。不规则波中参数横摇的准确预报对于船舶操纵指导有着重要指导意义。【方法】标模C11船的模型试验在中国船舶科学研究中心水池进行,发现七级海况不规则波中发生了参数横摇,以试验数据构建了参数横摇运动时历数据集。建立了基于LSTM神经网络的数据驱动模型,非线性特征通过历史周期性数据输入开展参数横摇特征识别,基于神经网络结构优化时序关系。【结果】预报模型的超参数以参数横摇幅值为目标进行调试,通过训练集和验证集的预报结果对比,表明LSTM神经网络模型可用于不规则波中的参数横摇预报。测试集上参数横摇的平均绝对误差最小为0.128,参数横摇最大角误差最小为0.62%。【结论】神经网络模型对于不规则波中参数横摇预报精度满足要求,可为船舶参数横摇预报和失稳预警提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: ObjectiveParametric roll poses a significant threat to both cargo and personnel safety. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has established the second-generation intact stability criteria and provided operational guidelines for parametric rolling in actual ships. Accurate prediction of parametric rolling in irregular waves holds important guiding significance for ship operational guidance. MethodsModel tests for the standard C11 ship were conducted in the tank of the China Ship Scientific Research Center, revealing the occurrence of parametric rolling in irregular waves under sea state 7. A dataset of parametric rolling motion time histories was constructed based on the experimental data. A data-driven model based on the LSTM neural network was developed, with nonlinear features identified through input of historical periodic data for parametric rolling characteristic recognition, and the temporal relationships optimized based on the neural network architecture. ResultsThe hyperparameters of the prediction model were adjusted with the parametric rolling amplitude as the target. A comparison of the prediction results from the training and validation sets indicates that the LSTM neural network model can be used for predicting parametric rolling in irregular waves. On the test set, the minimum mean absolute error for parametric rolling was 0.128, and the minimum maximum angular error for parametric rolling was 0.62%. ConclusionThe neural network model meets the accuracy requirements for predicting parametric rolling in irregular waves and can provide technical support for the prediction and instability warning of parametric rolling in ships

     

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