基于AHC-PSO-RF代理模型的国际航行大型集装箱船参数横摇运动快速预报

Rapid prediction of parametric roll motion for large international container ships based on the AHC-PSO-RF surrogate model

  • 摘要: 参数横摇是一种在纵向波浪(特别是迎浪/首斜浪)中发生的剧烈横摇运动,这种自激共振现象可能导致船舶集装箱落水、设备损坏甚至倾覆。针对使用传统基于水动力学的数值模拟方法计算船舶参数横摇存在计算成本高、操作要求高且无法覆盖所有装载工况等问题,提出一种融合凝聚层次聚类(Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering,AHC)与改进的随机森林(Random Forest,RF)的集成机器学习替代模型,用于高效预测船舶参数横摇幅值。利用HAC压缩特征维度,降低模型复杂度和计算开销;采用粒子群算法(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO)对RF超参数进行全局寻优。基于某大型集装箱船多工况水动力数值模拟结果数据的验证结果表明:与广义回归神经网络(GRNN)及未优化RF模型相比,本模型(AHC-SPO-RF)在横摇与纵摇有义值预测中的决定系数(R2)平均提升5.84%与0.27%,均方根误差(RMSE)平均降低59.28%与10.69%,预测精度优越。同时,尽管模型训练耗时高于基准机器学习方法,但远少于水动力数值模拟方法,在批量预测任务中具备显著的效率优势,证明了其作为高效替代方案的工程实用价值。

     

    Abstract: Parametric roll is a severe rolling motion that occurs in longitudinal waves, especially in head/quartering seas. This self-excited resonance phenomenon can lead to container falling overboard, equipment damage, and even capsize of the ship. Traditional numerical simulation methods based on hydrodynamics for calculating ship parametric roll face challenges such as high computational costs, demanding operational requirements, and an inability to cover all loading conditions. To address these issues, an integrated machine learning alternative model combining Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) and an improved Random Forest (RF) is proposed for efficiently predicting the amplitude of ship parametric roll. Utilizing HAC to compress feature dimensions, reduce model complexity, and lower computational costs; employing Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for global optimization of RF hyperparameters. The validation results based on hydrodynamic numerical simulation data from multiple operating conditions of a large container ship indicate that, compared to the Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and the unoptimized RF model, the proposed model (AHC-SPO-RF) achieves an average improvement of 5.84% and 0.27% in the determination coefficient (R2) for predicting the significant values of roll and pitch, respectively, and an average reduction of 59.28% and 10.69% in the root mean square error (RMSE), demonstrating superior prediction accuracy. Additionally, although the model training time is higher than that of benchmark machine learning methods, it is significantly less than hydrodynamic numerical simulation, providing a notable efficiency advantage in batch prediction tasks and proving its practical engineering value as an efficient alternative.

     

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