基于贝叶斯更新的码头系泊仿真模型构建方法

Bayesian updating method for quay mooring system simulation model

  • 摘要:目的】建立鲁棒性强的码头系泊仿真模型对于确保船舶码头系泊的安全具有重要意义。【方法】本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯更新与贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)的码头系泊仿真模型更新方法,通过融合多工况下的实测数据信息,更新得到鲁棒性强的高精度码头系泊仿真模型。首先,构建初始系泊仿真模型;随后,在多个工况下分别构建仿真模型参数-响应特征的仿真代理模型;然后,在各个工况下基于实测数据,提取响应特征,利用马尔可夫蒙特卡洛方法(MCMC)进行贝叶斯更新,得到各工况下仿真模型参数的后验分布;最后,基于BMA方法,综合各个工况下的参数更新结果,构建得到高精度码头系泊仿真模型。【结果】本文以某型船码头系泊为例验证所提出方法,更新所得仿真模型在多个典型工况下对船体运动强度的预报误差不超过5%。【结论】该示例证明了本文所提出方法的有效性,对高精度码头系泊仿真模型的构建具有指导意义。

     

    Abstract: ObjectivesEstablishing a robust quay mooring simulation model for ships is of great significance for ensuring the safety of ship quay mooring operations.Methods This paper proposes an updating method for a quay mooring simulation model based on Bayesian updating and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). By integrating measured data under multiple operating conditions, this method updates and constructs a robust high-precision quay mooring simulation model. First, an initial quay mooring simulation model is constructed. Subsequently, simulation surrogate models for parameters-response characteristics of the quay mooring simulation model are developed under multiple operating conditions. Then, under each operating condition, response characteristics are extracted from measured data, and Bayesian updating is performed using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to obtain the posterior distributions of the simulation model parameters under each condition. Finally, based on the BMA method, the parameter updating results under all operating conditions are integrated to construct a high-precision quay mooring simulation model.Results Taking the quay mooring of a specific ship as an example, the proposed method is validated. The updated simulation model achieves prediction errors for hull motion strength of no more than 5% under multiple typical operating conditions. Conclusions This example validates the effectiveness of the proposed method and provides guidance for the construction of high-precision quay mooring simulation models.

     

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