基于双层优化策略的船舶电网预测性故障重构研究

Research on predictive fault reconfiguration of ship power grid based on double-layer optimizations strategy

  • 摘要: 【目的】解决船舶电网因线缆老化引发的非随机多重并发故障难以预防性重构,以及重构模型多目标权重系数设置不合理的问题,提升船舶电网安全性与重构效率。【方法】基于马尔可夫链与热-电-机械多物理场分析,构建船舶线缆老化故障预测模型,将其作为约束条件融入重构模型以规避高风险支路;提出双层优化策略:上层采用鲸鱼迁徙优化算法(WMA)动态求解多目标权重系数,下层采用基于混合策略改进的蜣螂算法(MSDBO)求解电网重构开关组合。【结果】 融合故障预测模型后,重构方案能100%提前规避故障概率≥0.5的高风险支路,较两步被动重构策略收敛速度提升47.06%;采用双层优化结构实现了权重系数的自适应动态调整,并使重构收敛速度提升56.25%。【结论】线缆老化故障预测模型与双层优化框架相结合,能够有效实现船舶电网的预测性重构,提前规避非随机故障,并显著提升重构效率和合理性,为解决非随机多重故障预测性重构问题提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract: Objectives To address the challenges of preventing non-random multiple concurrent faults caused by cable aging in shipboard power grids through preventive reconfiguration, and to resolve the issue of unreasonable weight coefficient settings in multi-objective reconfiguration models, thereby enhancing the safety and reconfiguration efficiency of shipboard power grids. Methods A cable aging fault prediction model for shipboard grids was constructed based on Markov chains and thermo-electro-mechanical multi physics analysis. This model was integrated as a constraint into the reconfiguration framework to avoid high-risk branches. A dual-layer optimization strategy was proposed: the upper layer dynamically solves multi-objective weight coefficients using the Whale Migration Algorithm (WMA), while the lower layer determines the optimal switch configuration for grid reconfiguration using a multi-strategy-improved Dung Beetle Optimizer (MSDBO). Results After integrating the fault prediction model, the reconfiguration scheme achieved 100% avoidance of high-risk branches (fault probability ≥0.5) proactively. Compared to the conventional two-step passive reconfiguration strategy, convergence speed improved by 47.06%. The dual-layer optimization framework enabled adaptive dynamic adjustment of weight coefficients and increased reconfiguration convergence speed by 56.25%. Conclusions The integration of the cable aging fault prediction model and the dual-layer optimization framework effectively enables predictive reconfiguration of shipboard power grids. This approach proactively mitigates non-random faults while significantly improving reconfiguration efficiency and rationality. It offers a novel solution for addressing predictive reconfiguration challenges in non-random multiple-fault scenarios.

     

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