Navy maintenance dock demand evaluation method based on Markov process

  Objective  The prediction of supporting resources has always been a focus and difficulty of naval ship comprehensive support. In this paper, a prediction model and method are proposed for the support needs of naval ship maintenance docks.

  Method  The Markov process is introduced and applied to the prediction of ship dock demand. By analyzing the system characteristics of ship dock use, a Markov forecasting model and evaluation index of dock demand are established, and the validity of the prediction method is verified by case analysis.

  Results  The calculation example shows that the prediction model can better reflect the influence of ship maintenance intensity and the number of docks on the system state, and the optimal dock requirements reflected by the evaluation index are in good agreement with the actual engineering.

  Conclusion  The prediction model of ship repair dock demand proposed in this paper can better reflect the physical process and engineering practice, and provide theoretical support for decision analysis, giving it good practical significance.