Ship collision risk calculation method considering uncertainty of ship position prediction

  Objectives  Ship collision is one of the main factors threatening the navigation safety of intelligent ships. A calculation model of ship collision risk should identify potential collision risks in time and provide the basic information for the intelligent ship's autonomous collision avoidance decision-making.

  Methods  This paper first analyzes the domain-based collision risk parameter calculation model according to the degree of domain violation and other parameters. The navigation scene is divided into a single-ship encounter situation and an encounter between a ship and target ship group, and a new collision risk parameter calculation model for multi-ship encounters is given. Second, based on the Wiener process, the uncertainty of ship position prediction is modeled and obtained according to the Chi-squared distribution. Finally, a calculation method for collision risk parameters which considers the uncertainty of ship position prediction is given.

  Results  On this basis, the influence of ship position prediction uncertainty on ship collision risk is considered.

  Conclusions  This method can further guarantee the safety of intelligent ships at sea.