李金源, 朱发新, 滕宪斌, 毕齐林. 基于贝叶斯优化的时间卷积网络船舶航迹预测[J]. 中国舰船研究. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03755
引用本文: 李金源, 朱发新, 滕宪斌, 毕齐林. 基于贝叶斯优化的时间卷积网络船舶航迹预测[J]. 中国舰船研究. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03755
Ship track prediction based on Bayesian optimization in time convolutional networks[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03755
Citation: Ship track prediction based on Bayesian optimization in time convolutional networks[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03755

基于贝叶斯优化的时间卷积网络船舶航迹预测

Ship track prediction based on Bayesian optimization in time convolutional networks

  • 摘要: 摘 要:【目的】为了提高船舶航迹预测精度和计算效率,解决传统办法容易出现梯度爆炸、计算时间长等问题。【方法】提出了基于改进的贝叶斯优化算法(IBOA)与时间卷积神经网络(TCN)的航迹预测模型。通过引入时间模式注意力机制(TPA),以提取各输入特征的权重,保证航迹历史数据的时序性。同时引入可逆残差网络,减少TCN模型训练过程中所占的内存。最后采用贝叶斯优化算法对时间卷积网络中的超参数(内核的大小K、膨胀系数d)进行寻优,获得最优模型后进行航迹预测。【结果】采用AIS采集的航迹数据验证,在弱耦合、中耦合和强耦合航迹预测中,均方根误差(RMSE)分别平均提高5.5×10-5,3.5×10-4和6×10-4。【结论】所提出网络对复杂航迹具有良好的适应性,它的精度均优于传统模型及LSTM模型,在耦合较强的航迹中仍保持较高的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Abstract: Objective In order to improve the accuracy and calculation efficiency of ship track prediction, the traditional method is prone to gradient explosion and long calculation time. Method A track prediction model based on improved Bayesian optimization algorithm (IBOA) and time convolution neural network (TCN) was proposed. The time pattern attention mechanism (TPA) is introduced to extract the weights of each input feature and ensure the timing of historical data of flight track. At the same time, the reversible residual network is introduced to reduce the memory occupied by TCN model training. Finally, the superparameters (kernel size K, expansion coefficient d) in the time convolutional network were optimized by using Bayesian optimization algorithm, and the optimal model was obtained for track prediction. Result The track data collected by AIS was verified, and the root mean square error (RMSE) was increased by 5.5×10-5, 3.5×10-4 and 6×10-4 in weak coupling,

     

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