董海波, 卞鑫, 柴威, 刘俊杰, 李政杰, 赵南. 基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估[J]. 中国舰船研究. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
引用本文: 董海波, 卞鑫, 柴威, 刘俊杰, 李政杰, 赵南. 基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估[J]. 中国舰船研究. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
Risk assessment of the polar ship-iceberg collisions based on the hierarchical model[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
Citation: Risk assessment of the polar ship-iceberg collisions based on the hierarchical model[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research. DOI: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738

基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估

Risk assessment of the polar ship-iceberg collisions based on the hierarchical model

  • 摘要: 【目的】船舶碰撞冰山是极地海域危害性较大的一种事故,开展典型海域船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估,对于确保极地船舶航行安全具有重要意义。【方法】针对船舶巴伦支海航行的情景,在识别风险影响要素基础上,构建船-冰山碰撞层次模型;提出一种改进的要素权重系数确定方法,通过与要素模糊评价相结合,发展形成一套完整的碰撞风险研究方法;结合专家意见,采用本文的方法对碰撞风险进行计算和评估。【结果】结果显示,极地船舶在巴伦支海航行碰撞冰山的风险为中等偏高,冰山冰况、人为失误和船舶自身是造成碰撞风险最主要的3个要素。【结论】极地船舶在巴伦支海航行时,应对冰山潜在的危险给予足够重视,采取必要的控制措施以防止碰撞发生。

     

    Abstract: Objectives Collisions between ships and icebergs are among the most harmful accidents in polar regions. It is imperative to conduct a risk assessment for ship-iceberg collisions in typical waters to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships. Methods Considering the scenario of the ships sailing in the Barents Sea, a hierarchy model for ship-iceberg collision is constructed based on identifying risk influencing factors. An improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient is proposed in this paper. Combined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors, a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed. The collision risk is calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions. Results It is shown that the risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium

     

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