董海波, 卞鑫, 柴威, 等. 基于层次模型的极地船舶−冰山碰撞风险评估[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2024, 19(增刊 2): 1–10. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
引用本文: 董海波, 卞鑫, 柴威, 等. 基于层次模型的极地船舶−冰山碰撞风险评估[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2024, 19(增刊 2): 1–10. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
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DONG H B, BIAN X, CHAI W, et al. Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship−iceberg collision[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2024, 19(Supp 2): 1–10 (in Chinese). doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
Citation: DONG H B, BIAN X, CHAI W, et al. Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship−iceberg collision[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2024, 19(Supp 2): 1–10 (in Chinese). doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
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基于层次模型的极地船舶−冰山碰撞风险评估

Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship−iceberg collision

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 为确保极地船舶航行安全，开展典型海域船舶−冰山碰撞风险评估。
    方法 针对船舶在巴伦支海航行的情景，在识别风险影响要素的基础上，构建船舶−冰山碰撞层次模型；提出一种改进的要素权重系数确定方法，通过与要素模糊评价相结合，发展形成一套完整的碰撞风险研究方法；结合专家意见，采用所提方法对碰撞风险进行计算和评估。
    结果 结果显示，极地船舶在巴伦支海航行过程中碰撞冰山的风险等级为中等偏高，冰山冰况、人为失误和船舶自身是造成碰撞风险最主要的3个要素。
    结论 极地船舶在巴伦支海航行时，应对冰山潜在的危险给予足够的重视，并采取必要的控制措施防止碰撞发生。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives In order to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships, ship-iceberg collision risk assessment is carried out in typical sea areas.
    Methods Considering the scenario of a ship sailing in the Barents Sea, this study constructs a hierarchical model of ship-iceberg collision on the basis of identifying the risk influencing factors, then proposes an improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient. Combined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors, a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed. The collision risk is then calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions.
    Results The risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium level, and the three main factors behind the collision risk are the iceberg conditions, human error and the ship itself.
    Conclusions When polar ships sail in the Barents Sea, attention should be paid to the potential danger posed by icebergs, and the necessary control measures should be taken to avoid collision.

     

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