基于云模型的舰船战备完好性评估方法

彭辉; 姜强; 邓建辉; 王岩磊; 范敏; 宋斌

doi:10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.02337

基于云模型的舰船战备完好性评估方法

doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.02337

彭辉^1,,
姜强¹,
邓建辉^2, ,,
王岩磊^2,,
范敏¹,
宋斌¹

1.
武汉大学电气与自动化学院, 湖北武汉 430072
2.
中国人民解放军92942部队, 北京 100161

基金项目: 国家部委基金资助项目

详细信息

作者简介:
彭辉，男，1975年生，博士，副教授。研究方向：武器装备可靠性与测试性。E-mail：hpeng@whu.edu.cn

邓建辉，男，1966年生，硕士，研究员

王岩磊，男，1980年生，博士，高级工程师

通信作者:
邓建辉

中图分类号: U674.7⁺03.5
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-03-31
- 修回日期: 2021-07-01
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-29
- 刊出日期: 2021-12-20

Warship operational readiness integrity evaluation method based on cloud model

1.
School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2.
The 92942 Unit of PLA, Beijing 100161, China

基于云模型的舰船战备完好性评估方法由彭辉，等创作，采用知识共享署名4.0国际许可协议进行许可。

摘要

摘要: 目的针对现有的舰船战备完好性评估方法已无法满足海军任务保障需求这一问题，提出基于云模型的新型评估方法。方法首先，在指标确定过程中，基于合作博弈权重方法，将层次分析法、熵权法和灰色关联度法所计算的权重进行合作博弈，从而拟合得到组合定权重，并引入变权重理论对定权重进行修正优化；然后，引入云模型理论，利用云相似度替代隶属度，设计基于云模型的模糊综合评估模型；最后，以舰船对空防御任务为例，评估舰船战备完好性。结果仿真结果表明：变权重模式下，基于云模型的模糊综合评估结果可以更准确地反映实船战备状态。结论研究成果可为舰船战备完好性评估提供参考。
- 战备完好性 /
- 变权重理论 /
- 云模型 /
- 模糊综合评估
Abstract: Objective Aiming at the problem that existing ship combat readiness assessment methods cannot meet the needs of naval mission support, a ship combat readiness assessment method based on cloud model theory is proposed. Methods First, in the process of determining the index, based on the cooperative game weight method, the weights calculated by the analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method and grey correlation method are used for the cooperative game in order to fit the combined fixed weight, and variable weight theory is introduced to modify and optimize the fixed weight. The cloud model theory is then introduced, and a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model based on the cloud model is designed using cloud similarity instead of membership degree. Finally, taking air defense tasks as an example, the combat readiness of the ship is assessed. Results The simulation results show that under the variable weight mode, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results based on the cloud model can more accurately reflect the combat readiness of real ships. Conclusion The results of this study can provide references for ship combat readiness assessment.
- operational readiness /
- variable weight theory /
- cloud model /
- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

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图 1 权重计算流程

Figure 1. Weight calculation process

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图 2 基于正态云模型的模糊综合评估模型

Figure 2. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on normal cloud model

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图 3 正向云发生器原理示意图

Figure 3. Schematic diagram of forward cloud generator

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图 4 逆向云发生器原理示意图

Figure 4. Schematic diagram of reverse cloud generator

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图 5 雷达探测距离指标评估等级的正态云模型

Figure 5. Normal cloud model of radar detection range index evaluation ratings

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图 6 雷达距离精度指标评估等级的正态云模型

Figure 6. Normal cloud model of radar range accuracy index evaluation ratings

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图 7 云模型的不同相交情形示意图

Figure 7. Schematic diagram of different intersection of cloud models

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图 8 云相似度的向量化描述

Figure 8. Vectorization description of cloud similarity

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图 9 舰船战备完好性状态的控制系统结构图

Figure 9. Structure diagram of warship operational readiness integrity state control system

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表 1 舰船对空防御系统指标的评估等级云模型参数

Table 1. Parameters of hierarchical cloud model for evaluation of ship air defense system index

系统	指标	正常	注意	异常	严重
雷达	航迹稳定度	(2.032, 21.250 3, 0.195 87)	(3.999 6, 1.878 1, 0.133 72)	(6.844 5, 1.853 6, 0.029 128)	(9.498 5, 0.933 69, 0.164 57)
	探测距离/km	(500.96, 62.569, 8.249 3)	(395.81, 61.799, 6.903 1)	(298.72, 62.230, 8.948 1)	(145.38, 95.021, 7.438 2)
	距离精度/m	(94.546, 12.273, 1.838 4)	(129.44, 9.125 6, 1.326 4)	(159.84, 11.574, 1.733 4)	(198.02, 10.973, 1.687 5)
	方位精度/(°)	(0.307 78, 0.183 69, 0.072 371)	(0.597 74, 0.061 88, 0.023 38)	(0.698 09, 0.061 37, 0.012 391)	(0.953 30, 0.092 23,0.034 195)
指挥系统	指示距离精度/m	(96.369, 11.052, 1.348 2)	(132.44, 10.057 3, 1.058 7)	(164.96, 9.812, 1.934)	(203.14, 12.024, 1.368 7)
	指示方位精度/(°)	(0.351 41, 0.121 54, 0.015 243)	(0.612 72, 0.025 78, 0.019 417)	(0.743 54, 0.054 24, 0.016 923)	(1.025 4, 0.071 25, 0.015 635)
	融合距离精度/m	(93.158, 9.157 4, 1.761 2)	(128.42, 8.157 4, 0.935 8)	(158.94, 10.614 7, 1.224 1)	(206.48, 9.444 7, 1.414 5)
	融合方位精度/(°)	(0.297 28, 0.283 78, 0.062 521)	(0.637 25, 0.042 52, 0.017 257)	(0.725 24, 0.055 75, 0.024 748)	(0.982 52, 0.082 57, 0.023 622)
舰炮	目标拦截距离/km	(102.15, 9.158 7, 1.578 4)	(82.348, 10.135 9, 1.264 7)	(67.274 1, 7.569 5, 1.415 6)	(49.154 2, 8.154 3, 1.475 6)
	系统反应时间/s	(2.963 9, 1.458 1, 0.091 48)	(5.143 9, 1.292 5, 0.126 1)	(7.265 9, 1.744 9, 0.091 58)	(10.267, 1.659 1, 0.117 8)
	火控俯仰精度/mrad	(0.091 48, 0.091 21, 0.001 548)	(0.223 91, 0.133 24, 0.001 477)	(0.401 88, 0.117 41, 0.010 216)	(0.532 21, 0.123 17, 0.002 544)
导弹	目标拦截距离/km	(198.19, 9.315 4, 0.915 43 )	(167.63, 7.115 6, 1.741 5)	(131.36, 10.684, 1.125 5)	(98.173 6, 8.147 5, 0.812 56)
	系统反应时间/s	(3.156 4, 1.684 1, 0.083 61)	(5.795 2, 1.365 7, 0.121 5)	(7.513 6, 0.921 64, 0.113 61)	(10.364, 1.352 4, 0.181 4)
	火控俯仰精度/mrad	(0.121 87, 0.086 14, 0.002 541)	(0.257 81, 0.136 21, 0.001 271)	(0.387 32, 0.093 18, 0.008 121)	(0.517 25, 0.136 54, 0.001 325)

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表 2 s(x)的有效积分范围

Table 2. Effective integral range of s(x)

相交情形	积分范围$ \left[ {{x_{\min }},{x_{\max }}} \right] $
情形1	$[E{x}_{{\text{II}}}-3E{n}_{{\text{II}}},E{x}_{{\text{I}}}+3E{n}_{{\text{I}}}]$
情形2	$\left[ {E{x_{\text{II}}} - 3E{n_{\text{II}}} } \right.,\left. {E{x_{\text{II}}} + 3E{n_{\text{II}}} } \right]$
情形3	$\left[ {E{x_{\text{I}}} - 3E{n_{\text{I}}} } \right.,\left. {E{x_{\text{I}}} + 3E{n_{\text{I}}} } \right]$

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表 3 舰船系统战备完好性指标单项评估结果

Table 3. Single evaluation result of combat readiness index of ship system

指标名称	归一化平均数据	单项评估结果(云相似度)	评估等级
航迹稳定度	0.917	(0.906, 0.094, 0, 0)	正常
雷达探测距离	0.922	(0.911, 0.089 0, 0)	正常
雷达距离精度	0.676	(0.013, 0.346, 0.641, 0)	异常
雷达方位精度	0.747	(0.178, 0.701,0.121, 0)	注意
指示距离精度	0.508	(0,0.269, 0.393, 0.338)	异常
指示方位精度	0.632	(0, 0.264, 0.659, 0.077)	异常
融合距离精度	0.897	(0.881, 0.115, 0.004, 0)	正常
融合方位精度	0.869	(0.826, 0.151, 0.023, 0)	正常
舰炮目标拦截距离	0.698	(0, 0, 0.879, 0.121)	异常
舰炮系统反应时间	0.878	(0.784, 0.211, 0.005, 0)	正常
舰炮火控俯仰精度	0.648	(0, 0, 0.826 0.174)	异常
导弹目标拦截距离	0.815	(0.796, 0.202, 0.002, 0)	正常
导弹系统反应时间	0.965	(0.923, 0.077, 0, 0)	正常
导弹火控俯仰精度	0.946	(0.914, 0.086, 0, 0)	正常

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表 4 定权重评估结果

Table 4. Fixed weight evaluation results

指标	综合评估向量	评估等级
雷达系统（元件层）	（0.509, 0.311, 0.178, 0）	正常
指挥系统（元件层）	（0.515, 0.184, 0.215, 0.09）	正常
舰炮系统（元件层）	（0.235, 0.063, 0.602, 0.101）	异常
导弹系统（元件层）	（0.856, 0.142, 0.001, 0）	正常
对空防御系统（系统层）	（0.576, 0.168, 0.212, 0.054）	正常

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表 5 变权重评估结果

Table 5. Variable weight evaluation results

指标	综合评估向量	评估等级
雷达系统（元件层）	（0.363, 0.375, 0.262, 0）	注意
指挥系统（元件层）	（0.315, 0.211, 0.347, 0.127）	异常
舰炮系统（元件层）	（0.129, 0.051,0.735,0.085）	异常
导弹系统（元件层）	（0.806,0.192, 0.002, 0）	正常
对空防御系统（系统层）	（0.370, 0.159, 0.397, 0.074）	异常

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