Objectives  The evolution of the equipment maintenance and support system of warships is the result of internal and external factors. Based on an analysis of the evolution dynamic mechanism and system dynamics theory, an evolution model of the warship equipment maintenance and support system is established, and the evolution trends and key factors of the system are simulated and analyzed.

  Methods  The model is quantified on the basis of the hypothesis, and the evolution process and sensitivity analysis of the system are carried out using the simulation tool Anylogic.

  results  The results show that the evolution of the maintenance and support system of warship equipment presents an increasing trend in an S-shaped curve. At the beginning of the evolution, the scale of the system grows slowly and the cost of completing tasks is high. It is necessary to increase the proportion of maintenance hardware and personnel investment at the same time in the early stages of system evolution, then increase the proportion of personnel investment in the transition period. In the middle and late stages of system evolution, measures such as increasing the participation of maintenance personnel in equipment development and design can improve the marginal benefits of investment and flexibility of maintenance organization while also bringing greater evolution benefits.

  Conclusions  This evolution simulation method based on system dynamics can provide support for the capability evaluation and key investment directions of the equipment maintenance and support system of warships.