王少博, 张英俊, 胡鑫. 考虑船位预测不确定性的船舶碰撞危险度计算方法[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2021, 16(1): 114–120. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.01914
引用本文: 王少博, 张英俊, 胡鑫. 考虑船位预测不确定性的船舶碰撞危险度计算方法[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2021, 16(1): 114–120. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.01914
WANG S B, ZHANG Y J, HU X. Ship collision risk calculation method considering uncertainty of ship position prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2021, 16(1): 114–120. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.01914
Citation: WANG S B, ZHANG Y J, HU X. Ship collision risk calculation method considering uncertainty of ship position prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2021, 16(1): 114–120. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.01914

考虑船位预测不确定性的船舶碰撞危险度计算方法

Ship collision risk calculation method considering uncertainty of ship position prediction

  • 摘要:
      目的  船舶碰撞是威胁智能船舶航行安全的主要因素。船舶碰撞危险度计算模型应及时发现船舶航行中潜在的碰撞风险,为智能船舶的自主避让决策提供依据。
      方法  首先,根据船舶领域侵入程度与侵入时间等参数,分析基于领域的碰撞危险参数计算模型,将航行场景划分为单船会遇局面和本船与船舶群组的会遇局面,给出一种新的多船会遇情况下的碰撞危险参数计算模型;其次,基于维纳过程对船位预测不确定性进行建模,根据卡方分布获取船位预测不确定性椭圆;最后,给出考虑船位预测不确定性的碰撞危险参数计算方法。
      结果  该计算模型能够考虑船位预测不确定性对船舶碰撞危险的影响。
      结论  可以进一步保障智能船舶的海上航行安全。

     

    Abstract:
      Objectives  Ship collision is one of the main factors threatening the navigation safety of intelligent ships. A calculation model of ship collision risk should identify potential collision risks in time and provide the basic information for the intelligent ship's autonomous collision avoidance decision-making.
      Methods  This paper first analyzes the domain-based collision risk parameter calculation model according to the degree of domain violation and other parameters. The navigation scene is divided into a single-ship encounter situation and an encounter between a ship and target ship group, and a new collision risk parameter calculation model for multi-ship encounters is given. Second, based on the Wiener process, the uncertainty of ship position prediction is modeled and obtained according to the Chi-squared distribution. Finally, a calculation method for collision risk parameters which considers the uncertainty of ship position prediction is given.
      Results  On this basis, the influence of ship position prediction uncertainty on ship collision risk is considered.
      Conclusions  This method can further guarantee the safety of intelligent ships at sea.

     

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