GM(1, N)model-based prediction of carbon steel corrosion rate

  Objectives  The corrosion rate prediction of carbon steel in marine environment is very complicated and uncertain.

  Methods  To improve the accuracy of prediction model in view of the low precision of grey prediction model for corrosion rate of carbon steel at present stage, the key factors which affect the corrosion rate can be concluded from the grey theory analysis of marine environment and corrosion rate of carbon steel, and then the GM(1, N) model which can predict the corrosion rate of carbon steel is established.

  Results  According to the case analysis, the main factors that affect the corrosion rate in seaareas of Qindao, Xiamen, Zhousan, Yulin coastal region are seawater temperature, biofouling, pH value and salinity, and based on the above, the establishment of GM(1, 5) model possesses higher precision and less computational costs.

  Conclusions  The research shows that the GM(1, N) model can predict the corrosion rate of carbon steel effectively, and also provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of residual life of carbon steel.